Spot Stock: What We Know – A Reality Check

Spotify's Q3 2025: Are the Subscriber Numbers Believable?

Spotify just dropped its Q3 2025 earnings (or rather, a press release announcing the earnings and an upcoming call). As always, the market will be laser-focused on subscriber growth. The headline number: 713 million users, including 281 million subscribers. The question is, are those numbers telling the whole story, or are they obscuring some uncomfortable truths?

Digging Into the User Base

Let's start with the basics. 713 million users sounds impressive, but "users" and "subscribers" are very different things. A user could be someone who signed up for a free account five years ago and hasn't logged in since. A subscriber is paying cold, hard cash every month. The real engine of Spotify's growth, and the key to its long-term viability, lies in converting those free users into paying subscribers. The conversion rate is what matters. What's the ratio of subscribers to total users? 281/713 is roughly 39%. Is that good? Is it trending up or down? The press release doesn't say.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Why not highlight the growth in subscribers? It's standard practice to trumpet those figures. The absence of that specific data point makes me wonder if the growth is slowing, or if the churn rate (the rate at which subscribers cancel their subscriptions) is increasing. These are vital metrics that are conspicuously missing.

The Audiobook Gamble: A Risky Bet?

Spotify's been pushing hard into audiobooks, boasting "350,000 audiobooks a la carte." But "a la carte" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. It implies choice, but it also implies additional cost. Are users actually buying these audiobooks? Or are they just browsing, adding them to wishlists, and sticking with their usual music and podcasts? The press release is silent on audiobook revenue or listenership. This lack of transparency makes me think that the audiobook strategy isn't paying off as well as Spotify hopes.

Think of it like a casino. Spotify is essentially betting that by offering a wider range of content (audiobooks), they can entice users to spend more time (and money) on their platform. But if the house (Spotify) doesn't understand the odds (user behavior, conversion rates), the bet could backfire. Are audiobooks cannibalizing music listening time? Are they attracting a different demographic that churns more quickly? These are the questions that should be answered, not glossed over.

The Earnings Call: A Chance for Clarity?

The press release mentions a live Q&A session at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Daniel Ek and other executives will be answering questions submitted via Slido. That's a tightly controlled environment. Questions are pre-screened, and executives can dodge the tough ones. But it's still worth listening in. I'll be paying close attention to the language they use. Do they talk about "user growth" in general terms, or do they provide specific numbers on subscriber acquisition cost and lifetime value? Do they address the elephant in the room: profitability? The details of the call were initially announced in the Spotify Releases Q3 2025 Results, Earnings Call 8 a.m. ET press release.

The Missing Pieces Tell the Story