belarus: What's the deal?

Okay, let's get this straight. Belarus. Still a thing. Still run by that… guy. Lukashenko. Five years after the whole "election" debacle that exiled Tsikhanouskaya. Five years! Feels like a lifetime ago, doesn't it?

The More Things Change...

So, what's changed? Well, according to the human rights group Viasna, over 1,240 political prisoners are rotting in Belarusian jails. That’s… not great. I mean, you'd think something would have shifted in five years. Nope.

And get this – apparently, Belarus is now churning out military gear for Russia. Optics, components, the whole shebang. Switched 290 enterprises from making consumer goods to… war stuff. Because, you know, nothing says "sovereign nation" like being Putin's personal arms dealer.

Then there's Lithuania slamming the border shut. Contraband crossings and "provocations," they say. Which, let's be real, probably means Lukashenko's goons are stirring up trouble. Again. It's like watching the same bad movie on repeat.

Trump's "Deal" and the Price of Freedom

Here's where it gets truly twisted. Remember when Trump was in office? Apparently, he struck some "deal" with Lukashenko to release 52 political prisoners. Cool, right? Except... the price? Washington lifted sanctions on Belavia, the Belarusian airline. Banks unfroze assets. So, basically, Trump gave Lukashenko a get-out-of-jail-free card for… releasing people he shouldn't have imprisoned in the first place. Freed in Trump deal: Prisoners in exile tell of brutality behind bars in Belarus - BBC

And Mikola Statkevich? The veteran opposition politician? Refused to leave. Just… vanished. What the hell happened to him? We may never know.

Tsikhanouskaya's husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, got sprung from prison, at least. That's gotta be a win, right?

But then you see that Lithuania is charging 15 people over alleged Russian-backed parcel bombs. Fires breaking out in Germany, Poland, the UK. It's all connected, see? Lukashenko's playing Putin's game, and Europe's paying the price.

Tsikhanouskaya keeps saying Belarusians have made a "geopolitical choice toward Europe." That they don't dig Russia's imperial ambitions. And that pro-Ukrainian sentiment is strong. Which, honestly, I want to believe. But how much of that is just wishful thinking? How much is real?

Lukashenko, ofcourse, is pushing the line that he's "protecting Belarusians from war." Give me a break. He's selling them into servitude, one deal with Putin at a time. It's like he's auctioning off Belarus's soul for a lifetime supply of… what? Power? Ego strokes? Whatever it is, it ain't worth it.

The EU, US, UK, Canada – they all say Lukashenko's illegitimate. After both the 2020 and 2025 elections. Big deal. Words on paper. Meanwhile, the guy's still in charge.

And then there's the passport thing. The Belarusian regime won't renew or exchange passports for Belarusians living abroad. Leaving them in limbo. Some countries are stepping up – Lithuania, Poland, Denmark, Germany. But it's a drop in the bucket. A "passport of the New Belarus" is being floated. But that requires "political will." Which, let's face it, is in short supply these days.

Oh, and solitary confinement? Still the go-to punishment for political prisoners. For petty "violations." It's like they're deliberately trying to break these people.

And the cherry on top? Trump called Lukashenko "the highly respected president" after the 2025 elections. Highly respected? Is he blind? Or just… complicit?

Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe I'm expecting too much. Maybe this is just how the world works now.

So, What's the Real Story?

Look, it's a freaking mess. A slow-motion tragedy. Lukashenko's selling out his country, Putin's calling the shots, and the West is… what? Issuing strongly worded statements? Sanctioning airlines, then unsanctioning them? It's pathetic.